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HAITI ELECTIONS – AN ANALYSIS By
Max Blanchet Max
Blanchet is a community activist and a retired chemical engineer living in
Northern California area.
Haiti
CEP's Election Poster ( Register to Vote) | |
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In Haiti, they have just passed another major hurdle with the publication of the
final list of qualified presidential candidates (see
complete list) The
registration of electors has also come to an end. To date --if one is to believe
the electoral board-- the authorities have registered 3.3–3.5 million voters,
representing approximately 73--78% of the electorate. The registration process
has probably shortchanged people residing in remote rural districts. Registered
voters are scheduled to vote in 809 voting centers incorporating 12 bureaus each.
The number of voting centers was set for the purpose of providing security for
the process and not driven by the need to provide easy access. Assuming 50% participation
and polling places open 10 hours, each bureau will process 180 voters on voting
day and devote 3.33 minutes to each. When one considers that the voter will be
choosing one presidential candidate among 35 and parliamentary candidates among
many more the time allotted per voter is small. The
registered voters have begun to receive for the first time in Haiti's electoral
history their electoral cards --with photo and fingerprint-- free of charge that
will serve as an all-purpose ID card. This explains why people have registered
in such large numbers: it is perhaps their way of affirming their sense of citizenship
and acquiring the means giving them easier access to the meager services the state
offers. A
friend of mine showed me his card recently. The entries –name, date and place
of birth, place of residence-- are in Creole and French. The card displays two
photos: a regular passport-size photo and a smaller (one third of the size) photo
that is probably the digitized version entered in the database. The card also
displays the voter’s fingerprint on the back and prominently on the front
a unique identifying number – similar to the US social Security number –
that will be referred to in all transactions with the state. There
is much controversy regarding the cards themselves, namely that the Mexican company
hired to fabricate them will not be able to deliver them all in time for the elections
whose final calendar – first and second rounds of the presidential and parliamentary
elections on December 27 and January 31 respectively – had not been confirmed
as of November 20, 2005; that some of the cards are defective as they include
the wrong pictures; that they do not identify the polling places where the bearers
are supposed to vote, etc. To date, 150,000 may have been distributed in the greatest
of disorder. Regarding
the parties, 47 were accepted and 18 rejected. To be accepted a party had to present,
among other things, a list of 5,000 voters and pay a fee. We
have 35 presidential candidates, including 2 former presidents (Manigat and Préval),
3 former prime ministers (Bazin, Chérestal and Préval), a number
of former senators and cabinet members, a businessman (Baker), two protestant
ministers (Jeune and Mésadieu), 3 former army officers (Rébu, Romain
and Toussaint) and one lone woman, Judie Roy, a well-known political activist. Why
so many candidates? Not discounting entirely the powerful --and unhealthy-- attraction
the office of president has on the psyche of so many in Haiti's political class,
the main reason has to do with the intent of the "lesser" candidates
to be in the limelight: this way, they will be remembered when the time comes
to distribute cabinet posts, directorships and ambassadorships. The fact that
the political parties will receive state financing cannot be dismissed as a motivating
factor. In
my opinion, the main candidates in alphabetical order and their parties are as
follows (this is pure speculation on my part as I have no polling data with which
to sort this out, but I have my hunches):
1. Charles BAKER (Independent backed by KOMBA, MPP and PAIN)
2. Marc BAZIN
(MIDH and Fanmi Lavalas)
3. Paul DENIS (OPL)
4. Hubert De RONCERAY (GFCD)
5. Serge GILLES (FUSION)
6. Gérard GOURGUE (MUP)
7. Leslie MANIGAT
(RDNP)
8. Luc MESADIEU (MOCHRENA)
9. Evans PAUL (Alliance Démocratique)
10. René PREVAL (ESPOIR)
11. Dany TOUSSAINT (MODEREH) I
see each individual in that group with the potential of pulling in more than 100,000
votes. I do not see anyone with the potential to win an absolute majority in the
first round. Many,
among them Paul Denis, Evans Paul, René Préval and Dany Toussaint
who belonged to the broad Lavalas coalition that brought Aristide to power in
1991, are still involved. They no longer belong, however, to one coalition. Fanmi
Lavalas itself is divided. Many among its grassroots supporters are probably backing
René Préval, while some of its leaders are backing Marc Bazin, the
greatest funambulist on the Haitian political scene of the last 15 years having
served Jean-Claude Duvalier as minister of finance, General Cédras as prime
minister, president Préval as a special adviser, and Aristide as minister
of planning. In the words of Father Massac, a Fanmi Lavalas partisan, he has "morphed
himself into an authentic representative (sic) of the toiling masses."
Given the opportunity,
Fanmi Lavalas would probably have selected Fr. Jean-Juste, who is in jail, to
be its presidential candidate. The jailing of Fr. Jean-Juste was a calculated
political move to keep him out of the electoral fray and divide Fanmi Lavalas.
Parties and
groups formerly affiliated with Aristide -- ESCANP, KOREGA, PLB, and KOZEPEP --
are backing Préval. MPP, its offshoot, KOMBA, and PAIN are supporting Baker.
MODEREH
is also an offshoot of Fanmi Lavalas whose leaders, Dany Toussaint and Prince
Sonson Pierre, formerly Fanmi Lavalas senators, broke with Aristide in 2003 and
actively worked to overthrow him when it became clear his days were numbered.
Can one speak
of any of these candidates being driven by ideology? Although 10 to 15 years ago,
one could discern the ideological inclinations of the major parties, today not
much remains of such preferences: there are too many strange alliances –Baker
and MPP/KOMBA, Bazin and Fanmi Lavalas, Gourgue and General Avril, Préval
and Moïse Jean-Charles of Mouvman Peyizan Milo-- and too many promises have
been broken for the electorate to take their ideological claims seriously. The
well-known maxim seems to drive these alliances of today: the enemy of my enemy
today is my friend notwithstanding the real differences we may have had in the
past. In addition, few of these parties or coalitions have taken the trouble to
spell out their vision and plans for the country. Typically, they have done so
in elaborate reports written in elegant French, thereby revealing their typical
inclination to ignore the majority that has been historically marginalized. Notwithstanding
this shortcoming, it must be stressed that Fusion, MIDH, OPL, RDNP and especially
the Groupe des 184 (behind Baker) have made a special effort to articulate their
vision and plans for the country and distribute them widely. It
is possible to look at the list of the 11 more important candidates and speculate
on the four or five likely to make it to the second round:
* Bazin, Préval and Toussaint are trying, in Haitian parlance, to eat from
the same Lavalas plate and in my view Préval is likely to attract the largest
share of this electorate because of the support of the networks he has created
as prime minister and president.
* Denis, Gilles and Paul are appealing to
the same electorate and I give the edge to Denis because of OPL’s superior
organization and implantation in the country.
* Gourgue and Manigat probably
appeal to the same sectors with Manigat having the edge because of his party’s
greater coherence, superior organization and longer record of political involvement.
* Baker is sui generis and has a good chance to be one of the finalists because
of the backing of the Groupe des 184.
* Likewise, Mésadieu is sui generis
and has a good chance because of the backing of the fundamentalist and evangelical
protestant networks, both locally and in the US. To
date, I have not been able to get any information on the candidates for parliament,
city councils and communal administrations. The composition of parliament will
determine the selection of the prime minister whose job it is to run the country
day to day. The local administrations will play a key role in the process to decentralize
the country, a key but unrealized feature of the 1987 Constitution. | 
